Queensland’s winter carnival has recently been proving a valuable lead-up reference for horses targeting the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, with several recent Cup winners using mid-year Brisbane races as a springboard.

Half Yours won the 2025 Caulfield Cup after campaigning in Queensland, while Without A Fight completed the Queensland-to-Caulfield Cup path in 2023 after winning the Queensland Derby. Incentivise also used Queensland form before winning the 2021 Caulfield Cup, while Bois D’Argent finished fourth in the 2023 edition.

The Queensland form has also translated into Melbourne Cup success, with Half Yours winning last year’s race after his Queensland campaign, Knights Choice following the same path in 2024, and Without A Fight completing the Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double in 2023. (Vow And Declare also won the 2019 Cup after a successful Queensland winter session).

With that history in mind, we’ve highlighted the best-performing 2026 Caulfield and Melbourne Cup contenders from this year's Queensland Winter Carnival.

See the runners below:

Royal Supremacy — $11 Caulfield Cup | $31 Melbourne Cup
Royal Supremacy had a strong Queensland winter, recording a win while also producing two other top-three finishes. It's a strong form profile which equated to an impressive 2000m Group 3 JRA Cup at Caulfield recently.

Birdman — $15 Caulfield Cup | $26 Melbourne Cup
Birdman produced a second in the Hollindale and a win in the Doomben Cup, making him one of the most impressive performers from the QLD carnival. The current expectation is that Birdman is unlikely to head towards either Cup, so his inclusion in the futures markets is worth treating with that in mind. His win in the G1 Underwood was super impressive.

Thebudgiesmugla — $101 Caulfield Cup | $51 Melbourne Cup
Thebudgiesmugla has a particularly interesting Queensland form line, winning the Caloundra Cup at the Sunshine Coast on July 4. That win in a 13-horse field gives him a standout piece of carnival form, although his overall profile isn't as deep as some of the others. He batted away when sixth of nine runners in The Metrop last Saturday.

She's A Hustler — $15 Caulfield Cup | $51 Melbourne Cup
She's A Hustler was consistently around the money in Queensland, recording solid efforts in the Hollindale and Doomben Cup. She didn't manage a win, but she remained competitive across all three runs. She was ok in the Makybe Diva on September 12, but seemingly didn't handle the Heavy 8 in the Turnbull last weekend.

Half Yours — $8 Caulfield Cup | $11 Melbourne Cup
The defending Caulfield and Melbourne Cup champion won the 2025 Caloundra Cup en route to the Cups double. He was unable to replicate his 2025 Queensland campaign, finishing fourth in each of the Hollindale, Doomben Cup and Q22. That's still remarkably consistent, but he hasn't produced the same standout result as Royal Supremacy or Birdman. He has run on nicely in the Makybe Diva (6th) and Turnbull (5th), ticking over well for both Cups.

Middle Earth — $51 Caulfield Cup | $31 Melbourne Cup
Middle Earth only had one Queensland run, but he made it count with a victory in the JRA Chairman’s Handicap. That's a strong individual piece of form, although there's less evidence to work with compared with the horses who had multiple carnival starts. He has been a bit plain in two Melbourne runs this prep, but is still on track for the Melbourne Cup.

Asterix — $41 Caulfield Cup | $51 Melbourne Cup
Asterix's Queensland campaign was a mixed one, with two poorer runs but then a win in the Tattersall’s Cup. The win is obviously a positive, although it came in the smallest field of his three starts. He was too bad to be true when a 43-length last in the Turnbull last weekend after running third in the Naturalism.

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